Sign of the times
The closing of Famous Anthony’s in Blacksburg is, unfortunately, another visible sign of a troubled economy. Another sign came in an email today: The chain that now owns the newspaper where I reported for 11 years is filing for bankruptcy protection.
It’s no longer a question of if some, or perhaps many, businesses will close but the more pressing questions of how many and when. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reports small business closings are up 64 percent this year — the largest increase in 15 years.
It’s not just businesses who suffer. At the opening game of the Floyd County High School varsity football season Friday night, a team member’s mother approached me and asked how much it would cost for prints of her son playing.
"It’s ten dollars each for 8x10s or $15 for 11x14s," I replied.
"Oh my goodness," she said. "We can’t afford that."
Those old enough to remember the great depression say what we have now is not a recession but the beginning — and the key word is "beginning" — of a depression.
Some economists say the worst is yet to come.
Batten down the hatches mate. It’s going to be a long, cold winter.
Art enhances life to an incredible extent, but it can’t substitute for food or shelter, so trends in art sales are an early reflection of consumer confidence levels.
People need art in their lives and will work hard to acquire something that communicates a message or a memory. Photographs on a wall are a celebration of life and a postulate of a hopefully stable future.
When someone “can’t afford” something with deep emotional significance, they are showing awareness of an oncoming threat that affects their survival.
They may try to take their attention off a looming disaster by going on vacation, or going on a spending spree, but this is a diversion, not an investment in a future state of mind like art or photography.
As people regain confidence in their ability to predict their futures, I think we will see renewed interest in art and photographic trophies of life’s successes.
Until that happens, we are all going to have to get better at supplying what people need at a price that they “can afford”. I have found that barter makes it possible to keep things going when all else fails.
We live in interesting times…
Manufacturing indicators are up and related job losses were halved last month. The recession is ending, but I suspect that it will take a long time for strength to return to Floyd, and SW in general.
The Bonddad Blog
My understanding of economic indicators related to employment is that job losses are tracked by the number of people coming onto or who remain eligible to receive modest unemployment benefits for a finite period of time. Reported job losses are therefore something quite disconnected from real household income levels or the creation of actual new jobs providing compensation necessary to cover basic needs. Knowing subsistence living standards are the new norm for more and more people is indeed depressing.