Yes, another winter storm might hit us Tuesday.

Or it might not.

As has happened too many other times in this winter, Floyd County and our part of Southwestern Virginia are “on the edge” of where rain turns to snow — which means our rain could be mixed with ice.

The National Weather Service says the storm “will also affect the central Appalachians and interior Northeast from West Virginia to upstate New York and New England.”

Roanoke Times weather guru Kevin Myatt says what we have now is “full-on” mid-winter for our area:

A strong Arctic cold front pushes through on Tuesday, with a wave of low-pressure moving along the front. This will likely bring a mix of rain and snow that will become all snow from west-to-east over the course of Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday night, with some accumulation probable. 

 

My concern about Tuesday isn’t large amounts of snow. Right now this looks like a dusting-to-2-inches type event over most of our region, with some local amounts up to 4 inches in higher elevations and a few spots west of Interstate 81. (A more significant snow event may occur from east Tennessee into West Virginia, including parts of far southwest Virginia west of I-77, where a winter storm watch is already issued). But, with rain and snow becoming all snow and temperatures falling rapidly below freezing, moisture could form on roads that freezes into ice, maybe more like a “flash freeze” than the situation that got more attention as a possible “flash freeze” the weekend before last.  Beware of this if you have travel plans the latter half of Tuesday.

Either way, the weather outside is mostly cold. After a high in the mid-30s Saturday, Sunday could warm up to around 42 before dropping back to around 23 overnight, then 42 again on Monday with low just a degree above freezing.

Tuesday’s current “official” forecasts calls for rain to snow showers with a high around 40 and a low in the mid-teens, then a much colder Wednesday with a high of 28 before plunging to about 4 degrees into the wee morning hours of Thursday.

Looking into February, snow and/or a mixture with rain and freezing rain is forecast for Feb. 6, 8, 9 and 10. This far out, however, those forecasts can change.

Let’s keep our fingers (and perhaps our toes) crossed while keeping a good pair of snow boots by the door.