Mother Nature’s last snow job?

The snow that arrived Friday looked for a while like it might be something to worry about but turned into more of a non-event with accumulations of just over an inch in most places and even less in some.

So, with a pleasant Sunday with highs in the 60s and 50s and 60s for most of the coming week, are we out of the snow season?

That depends, says Roanoke Times Weather Guru Kevin Myatt:

* If you live above 2,000 feet or so, or just about anywhere west of I-81, Friday was almost certainly not the last time you will have seen snowflakes this season, and many of you will probably get a white ground at least one more time. We will have more cold fronts with Canadian or even Arctic air behind them, the next one probably in about 10 days, and there will be upslope snow showers blowing over from West Virginia behind those, at least. There is usually a rainy spring system or two that manages to start or end as wet snow at higher elevations. In these areas, I would rate the chances of seeing additional accumulating snow this winter, at least minor amounts, as above 50-50, greater chances the higher and more west you go, and still at least a 1 in 3 in shot at a widespread winter storm-warning level event (4+ inches).

* For lower elevations in the Roanoke Valley and to the east of the Blue Ridge, there will probably be a least a few more snow flurries blowing over the mountains behind a cold front. As for anything that would cover the ground, that would require something more organized, a system pumping abundant moisture into cold air that is at least somewhat trapped, and that gets harder and harder to pull of with each passing day of longer sun light and higher sun angle. There is really no indication of a long-lasting classic winter cold pattern that can overwhelm the tide of the advance of spring, as happened last March and early April, so for now, I would go less than 50-50 on such a system developing for accumulating snow in the lower elevations, and no higher than a 20% chance of a winter storm-warning level event (4+ inches).

While there’s a lot of hedging is such an outlook, the general feeling is that the worst is behind us.

The same is not true in the Midwest, which is bracing for a foot or more of the white stuff whatever happens to that storm front will probably miss us as it moves into the northeastern part of the country.

For this week, the outlook is pleasant, and dry, days through Thursday night with thunderstorms forecast for Friday.  High temperatures, the National Weather Service office in Blacksburg says, are 57 Monday, 51 on Tuesday, 54 Wednesday, 59 on Thursday and Friday.

Overnight lows drop to 30 Monday night, 32 on Tuesday and then stay in the 40s and 50s for Wednesday and Thursday before dropping to 33 Friday and below freezing on Saturday.

The following week, starting on Sunday, March 16, should give us mostly sunny days with highs in the 50s with showers on Wednesday but little chance of rain again until Sunday March 24.

If forecasts remain the same, and that is alway a big “if,” we are looking at a tmoderately warm start of Spring (highs 49-51) with some showers.

It that sticks, the end of winter might be real.

We shall see.


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© 2021 Blue Ridge Muse